Ontario, Canada's economic powerhouse, is leading a strong pivot far from its historical dependence on the United States, driven by intensifying U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, which skyrocketed to 50%. This strategic shift is exemplified by a $20 billion Volkswagen battery plant in St. Thomas, set to produce lithium-ion cells for over 1 million electric vehicles each year– all destined for Europe, bypassing the U.S. completely. This purposeful move avoids unpredictable U.S. trade policies, aligning Ontario with Europe's stable, climate-focused markets. The province is also wielding its energy grid as a weapon, imposing a 25% surcharge on electrical power exports to U.S. border states like Michigan and New york city, exposing America's dependence on Canadian power. European investment is flooding Ontario's clean energy and production sectors, with tasks like a EUR500 million green hydrogen initiative in Thunder Bay signaling a new transatlantic focus. Canada's pension funds are rerouting billions from U.S. markets to Europe, focusing on predictability over proximity. Prime Minister Mark Carney's state visit to Paris and a stopped briefly $19 billion F-35 handle the U.S. highlight this realignment. Ontario's actions might stimulate a wider Canadian shift, possibly improving North America's economic and political landscape. As trade flows east and rely on the U.S. subsides, Canada is creating a course towards independence, challenging the idea of a unified North American bloc and raising questions about who will lead the continent's future.
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